Military Journalist Shunji Taoka appeared live on Arc Times: The News on December 20, 2022, and explained why it is impossible for China to invade Taiwan by land.

By Arc Times staff

 

Land invasion would be suicide for China.

-Q、You have been saying the very idea of a “Taiwan contingency” is questionable.

“As is always the case with military people, they cannot get a military budget without stirring up a crisis. When the Soviet Union collapsed, the Japanese defense force concentrated in Hokkaido was about to be reduced. Then, the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force (GSDF) came up with an idea of defending the Southwest Islands. At first, the Maritime Self-Defense Force even laughed at the idea, saying, ‘there is no way to make that claim.’ But then they thought about it, and realized that the defense of the Southwest islands would also bring in a budget for the Maritime Self-Defense Force as well. So they started to say, ‘Well, let’s get on board then.”

“But in reality, it is impossible for China to invade Taiwan by land. This is because the landing ships that China has built and adding to its fleet now have a carrying capacity of about 20,000 people. That is about the number of troops that can be sent to Taiwan in the first wave. Taiwan, on the other hand, has 94,000 active duty army soldiers alone, 10,000 marines, and probably 300,000 trained reservists. So the total will be about 400,000. China’s first wave, again, would be 20,000 to 30,000 at most. There is no way Taiwan can lose. Moreover, Taiwan only needs to destroy the first wave. The first wave would normally need to secure a port or something so that the second wave would come in, so if the first wave is defeated, the Chinese side will not be able to do anything further. Taking these things into account, a landing invasion of Taiwan would be a suicide operation for China.”

-Q、So you’re saying that China’s military invasion of Taiwan is a unlikely scenario?

“It is beyond ‘unlikely,’ it’s impossible. Japan and the U.S. are saying it as if it is possible, but that’s because they want to get that military budget.

“If China were to use force, it might not be a land invasion, but an attack on Taiwan’s ports, making it impossible for merchant vessels to enter or leave or unload their cargo. Taiwan’s greatest weakness is that it is only 31% self-sufficient in food. Its fuel self-sufficiency rate is also only about 8%. ”

“However, It’s a double edged-sword. China will also hurt if it damages Taiwan’s economy. China and Taiwan have developed their economies hand in hand, like business partners. Their economies are interdependant. So China is hoping that it can somehow manage to unify the two countries peacefully,” Taoka said.

Most Taiwanese do not want independence.

“Xi Jinping actually said at the party congress in October 2022 that he would work toward the ‘peaceful unification of Taiwan in the future.’ However, Japanese newspapers have only covered his combative quote that ‘we cannot promise not to use force,’ and have not reported the peaceful part of his statement,” Taoka said.

“The Taiwanese people don’t want independence in the first place. More than 80% of them say they prefer the status quo.”

“The most dangerous scenario, I think, is that the U.S. will stir up Taiwan’s independence movement and Taiwan will follow. If that happens, China would be forced into taking action to keep face,” Taoka said. “However, even if a military conflict occurs, it would only be a civil war in ‘China.’ This is because, as stated in the 1972 Japan-China Joint Statement, Taiwan is ‘a part of China’ and the current Chinese administration is the ‘only legitimate government.'”

Published on Jan / 2nd / 2023